NAS Weekend Look (Dec 13-17)

[OZER]

Here is the Weekend look at the NAS for Dec 13-17. Last week the support held the 55sma and bounce off the neutral. Price managed to break above the 16000-16285 resistance zone (see last week's post) and after a brief pullback into the downward trend line (identified in the midweek updates) the NAS is trading above the resistance zone again on Sunday night.

This week I will be watching for price to break through the red box into the completion zone of the harmonic I have drawn. I would expect some resistance at the green box as the harmonic is bearish . The key market driver this week will be the FED meeting. If you look back at recent FED meetings there is often a run up into the meeting and then a sell off just before or on the day of. Of course there is no guarantee. There is just what has happened before and probabilities. We have to trade what we see. If price fails to break through the red box look for a pull back to the tan box.

Although we are used to the broader indexes pulling back and then going on to make new highs effortlessly we should be prepared for some sideways to down price movement in the coming months. The new FED tapering narrative does not favour stocks and much depends on how the bond market reacts. If yields remain subdued I would expect a continuation of the rally in growth stocks. If the yield starts to move higher again I would expect growth to roll over once more and money move into financials. The most watch stock is likely to be AAPL . Many expect a continuation higher after the strong move last week. Obviously AAPL has the power to move the NAS all by it self so keep an eye on it as it may become the first 3 trillion dollar company this week.
Please like my post if you find it helpful.

Week ahead...


Tuesday... PPI
Wednesday...Retail Sales & FOMC Rate decision
Thursday... Jobless claims


Bull notes...

Price is in the bull zone.
VIX back to 18
Santa Rally
Growth stocks perking up
New leadership may emerge

Bearish notes...

FOMC surprise
Very few stocks leading current rally.
Taper tantrum

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