As Erdogan's rate talk fuels forex demand, the Turkish Lira sinks to 17 Dollars

Started by OZER, Jun 08, 2022, 10:37 PM

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They're talking about run-of-the-mill inflation driven by wage-price spirals, and saying that's how you get an inflationary spiral. In my mind, that's not the only way. We have a fiat currency and it's value is really derived from people's faith in it's value. You can print money and encourage borrowing etc, but much like stock market bubbles, there is a tipping point in there when all the feedbacks turn from negative to positive.  Normally, you hold money, it holds it's value, there's no real push to gain or spend it. If you think inflation is going to increase, it now becomes a hot potato that you want to spend as soon as you get it. You do this by buying useful assets like houses, land, food, things you need. When everyone does this it drives up the price, which would normally dampen demand, but if the expectation that money will continue losing value and the price will only increase, then the price doesn't matter anymore. Sellers can ask arbitrarily high prices. But who's going to sell into this and accept that money? Thus supply goes down at the same time demand goes up, further exacerbating the situation.  The government has been pumping new money into the economy to try and stimulate it, yet velocity stays low. Who needs to spend all that money under normal circumstances? But what happens when it all starts losing value? All that "cold" money suddenly turns hot, and the *effective* money supply suddenly increases. Meanwhile, everyone is also incentivized to borrow as much as possible to "short" the currency, further increasing the supply. But who wants to lend into this? The credit market slows, and the government steps in as "lender of last resort" again....using printed money.  Meanwhile, the massive amounts of money tied up in the stock market suddenly need a new home. I mean, who wants to hold a stock when all you can get out of it is increasingly worthless money. You paper gains are impressive, but it's only a reflection of the fact your asset is losing value, because the only value it has is denominated in dollars (rather than any kind of tangible use).  I mean it goes on and on. Wage-price spirals may be a part of 'normal' inflation but they don't really play into hyperinflation.

10 would get fired againSuch an interesting thing to pay attention to instead of my source of income, 10


If you are spending 40% - 50% of your income on housing, you're screwed.

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Given what we know now, the Supreme Court and DOJ are somewhat compromised by a few!

industrial markets. They will not be able to hide it any longer with price increases. I suggest everyone prepare for a cold summer.raw material shortages that are affecting the economy right now. These CEO's know and thought that it would get better by now. Šchiet is about to hit the fan. My company is completely lying about how bad our situation is and we are baby formula shortage bad and this is all over the constructionY'all really don't know how bad the supply chain

Inflation forces people to spend less and use less.  It's not necessarily a bad thing.  It's like fever or pain, tells you that something is wrong.



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I'm glad they called out Gensler during this. That guy is a joke